Crypto Will Achieve a $10 Trillion Market Cap This Cycle

I won’t be surprised if this cycle's crypto market cap exceeds $10 trillion. In reality, I’d be more surprised if it doesn’t. Today, the crypto market cap sits at $3.25 trillion. So basically, it will need to triple to hit this landmark.

Many people will say it’s not going to happen this cycle or that it’s all going to go belly up because Trump is going to crash the economy, but I have a feeling they are wrong.

My money is where my mouth is, so I understand you are reading this from a biased source. I want the crypto market cap to exceed $10T, but my desires probably aren’t enough to get us there. But how does it get there? I’m about to show you that it won’t take much and share some of the logic behind my thesis.

It All Starts With Bitcoin

Today, the combined market caps of Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon are nearly $10T. Interestingly, if we look at the past 10 years, many of the large market cap gains occurred in certain years. For example, in 2019 and 2020, Apple‘s market cap grew by 72% and 75%, respectively. Meanwhile, Amazon’s largest gains were in 2015 (+120%) and 2023 (+83%). And Nvidia had a shocking +235% return in 2023 and a 174% in 2024.

On average, these massive corporations grew by 126% in their strongest years. Coincidentally, Bitcoin’s market cap increased by 125% last year.

What can we assume based on these megacaps outperforming the indexes? I’m not an economist, so I can’t say anything with certainty. But my best guess is that a larger market cap grows more easily today than during historical periods due to a combination of technological advancements/moats, investor groupthink from universal media, and/or monopolies.

Bitcoin fulfills all three of these narratives—it is a technological improvement over gold or other stores of value. It’s faster, cheaper, and more efficient than banks at moving large amounts of value.

Investor groupthink is everywhere. If one fund has exposure to Nvidia, Amazon, or Apple, the other funds will do the same. Bitcoin is the same, but it applies to funds, corporations, and governments.

Finally, Bitcoin has a monopoly on being scarce, regulated digital property. Have you noticed that Larry Fink and Michael Saylor are talking primarily about Bitcoin? There’s no comparable reporting on Ethereum, Binance Coin, or Solana. Further, these smart contract platforms serve a different purpose than Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin's market cap is $2T today and its market grows by another 125% this year, its valuation would be $4.5T, or a $214,000 Bitcoin.

Why Bitcoin’s Market Cap is So Significant

The entire crypto market cap is based on the value of Bitcoin and Altcoins. Today, Bitcoin is worth $2T, and the altcoin market is worth around $1.25T, giving us a total market cap of $3.25T.

However, most crypto investors understand that the value of altcoins oscillates in terms of market share percentage compared with Bitcoin. The term for this is Bitcoin dominance. And figuring this number out is easy. You divide the entire crypto market cap’s value by Bitcoin’s value. Here’s what the equation looks like today.

2T (Bitcoin’s Market Cap)/3.25T (Entire Crypto Market Cap)= 61.5% (Bitcoin Dominance)

Historically, in a bull cycle, Bitcoin’s dominance has gotten very high (in the 60–70% range), and following that, Altcoins has surged in value. Bitcoin’s dominance typically falls into the 35–40% range at the market peak.

If we get a $4.5T Bitcoin market cap, which represents 40% of the entire crypto market share, the entire crypto market cap will be $11.25T. If Bitcoin's dominance drops to 35%, the entire crypto market cap will be $12.85T.

Can It Really Be That Simple?

Yes. When animal instincts take over in markets, anything is possible. Countless altcoins have risen by multiples of thousands of percent in days or weeks. Some are even doing that today. But they are mostly pump-and-dump scams.

The key to the crypto market is Bitcoin. Here are some of the narratives that can lead to a $4.5T Bitcoin market cap.

• Countries start an arms race for Bitcoin. While relatively small, El Salvador has proven that accumulating Bitcoin is a sound strategy. What if the US, China, or another top economy puts Bitcoin in its reserves? There are rumors that the UAE already has. The liquidity that can go into Bitcoin is immeasurable.

• Smaller governments and corporations increasingly incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets, and many companies are copying the (Micro)Strategy example. For most, this has positively impacted their stock prices—all that investors and executives care about. Bitcoin provides a means to that end.

• More ordinary investors will allocate to Bitcoin. Now that banks can profit from Bitcoin, they will push it on all of their clients (after filling their coffers, of course). Self-custody sucks for 98% of people. There are too many scammers and too much room for error. The ETFs solve this.

• Global liquidity and stimulus increases. While things are going well in the US statistically, things can turn on a dime. And China and the EU are showing extreme signals that they must turn on the monetary faucet. Below is a chart of the M2 money supply for the US, China, the EU, and Japan. What direction do you think the graph will go?

Key Takeaways

A $10T crypto market cap is possible in this cycle. As we’ve learned with Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia, it’s important to be properly positioned at the right time. These mega-cap companies had explosive years that drove a high percentage of their 10-year returns.

The nice thing about crypto is that you don’t have to risk everything on a memecoin or the latest AI phenomenon. You can hold a diversified portfolio of some of the top 20–30 coins and make magnificent returns if the $10T scenario plays out.

I urge everyone reading this to consider owning some Bitcoin. Don’t be fooled by the high unit bias. Would you rather own one house on 5th Avenue or 20 acres of barren land in the desert? Quantity is not better than quality in most things in life.

Let me know what you think. Are you in the camp buying the FUD about no altseason? If so, why? If you liked this, please clap and comment. I appreciate you taking the time to read my content.

I own BTC and many altcoins. This information should not be taken as investment advice. I haven’t been paid to write this article. Digital assets like crypto and NFTs involve risk, so you should always perform due diligence before investing.

Follow me on Twitter.

Follow me on Focus.xyz